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September 26, 2025
UMI rose to 1.60 in August, remaining elevated vs the range observed since June 2024. We note that pre-payments have also been rising, which tend to be associated with improving credit performance and may be some cause for optimism related to future UMI movement.
The personal savings rate was 4.6% in August, down 0.2 percentage points from July (July’s value was revised from 4.4% to 4.8% by the BEA). This downtick reflects spending growth of 0.3% outpacing a 0.2% increase in real disposable income, with much of the increase tied to back-to-school purchases such as clothing, footwear, recreational goods, and school supplies.
Revisions to UMI are posted weekly. Changes since the last monthly email update:
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
The statements and information on this site are current as of October 7, 2025, unless another date with respect to any information is indicated, and are provided for informational purposes only. Past UMI performance can provide no assurance and is not indicative of future UMI results. UMI is based on historical data and Upstart’s analysis of the losses within Upstart-powered loan portfolios and is specific to Upstart’s borrower base. UMI is not intended to measure the macroeconomic risks in terms of losses of loan portfolios or asset classes that are not Upstart-powered loans, including loans held by other segments of the U.S. population. It is not designed to measure the current state of the overall economy or to measure or predict future macroeconomic conditions, trends or risks. It is also not designed to measure or predict the future performance of Upstart-powered loans or of Upstart’s other products, overall financial results of operations or stock price. We expect that our research and development efforts to improve UMI could result in changes or revisions to current or past UMI values.
All forward-looking statements or information on this site are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those that Upstart expected. Any forward-looking statements or information on this site are only as of the date hereof. Upstart undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements or information on this site as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. More information about these risks and uncertainties is provided in Upstart’s public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, copies of which may be obtained by visiting Upstart’s investor relations website at www.upstart.com or the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.
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