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Jan. 31, 2025
UMI increased to 1.41 for December. This is consistent with the initial November read (which has since been revised to 1.35) and remains in line with the improved levels we’ve observed since October.
UMI’s improvement since the first half of 2024 and recent stability contrast slightly with the latest personal savings rate (PSR) data, which at 3.8% is the lowest level since December 2022. The PSR’s latest monthly decrease of 0.3 percentage points from November’s revised 4.1% reflects consumer spending continuing to outpace income growth.
The unemployment rate fell back to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November, and the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons. These data points continue to indicate a relatively tight labor market, which should support wage earnings growth that could address the ongoing spending vs. income imbalance.
Revisions to UMI are posted weekly. Changes since the last monthly update:
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
The statements and information on this site are current as of March 22, 2023, unless another date with respect to any information is indicated, and are provided for informational purposes only. Past UMI performance can provide no assurance and is not indicative of future UMI results. UMI is based on historical data and Upstart’s analysis of the losses within Upstart-powered loan portfolios and is specific to Upstart’s borrower base. UMI is not intended to measure the macroeconomic risks in terms of losses of loan portfolios or asset classes that are not Upstart-powered loans, including loans held by other segments of the U.S. population. It is not designed to measure the current state of the overall economy or to measure or predict future macroeconomic conditions, trends or risks. It is also not designed to measure or predict the future performance of Upstart-powered loans or of Upstart’s other products, overall financial results of operations or stock price. We expect that our research and development efforts to improve UMI could result in changes or revisions to current or past UMI values.
All forward-looking statements or information on this site are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those that Upstart expected. Any forward-looking statements or information on this site are only as of the date hereof. Upstart undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements or information on this site as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. More information about these risks and uncertainties is provided in Upstart’s public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, copies of which may be obtained by visiting Upstart’s investor relations website at www.upstart.com or the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.
For the Upstart Macro Index Terms of Use, go here.