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Feb. 28, 2025
UMI increased to 1.53 for January. This is the first increase since May 2024 and remains in the improved range we’ve seen since June. Typically, we’d expect a positive impact on UMI from tax refunds at this time of year, but the issuance of refunds was down 56% year-on-year as of mid-February. This may explain the increase in UMI and provide a reason to expect an improvement when refunds begin to pick up.
The personal savings rate (PSR) showed a large month-on-month increase in January, jumping 1.1 percentage points to 4.6% from 3.5% in December. The primary driver was reduced spending. Seasonally adjusted personal consumption declined 0.5% vs prior month—the first reduction since April and the largest decline since February 2021.
The unusual patterns in consumer spending and tax refunds may reflect disruption by severe winter weather across much of the U.S.—2025’s was the coldest January in the past 20 years.
Revisions to UMI are posted weekly. Changes since the last monthly update:
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
The statements and information on this site are current as of March 22, 2023, unless another date with respect to any information is indicated, and are provided for informational purposes only. Past UMI performance can provide no assurance and is not indicative of future UMI results. UMI is based on historical data and Upstart’s analysis of the losses within Upstart-powered loan portfolios and is specific to Upstart’s borrower base. UMI is not intended to measure the macroeconomic risks in terms of losses of loan portfolios or asset classes that are not Upstart-powered loans, including loans held by other segments of the U.S. population. It is not designed to measure the current state of the overall economy or to measure or predict future macroeconomic conditions, trends or risks. It is also not designed to measure or predict the future performance of Upstart-powered loans or of Upstart’s other products, overall financial results of operations or stock price. We expect that our research and development efforts to improve UMI could result in changes or revisions to current or past UMI values.
All forward-looking statements or information on this site are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those that Upstart expected. Any forward-looking statements or information on this site are only as of the date hereof. Upstart undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements or information on this site as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. More information about these risks and uncertainties is provided in Upstart’s public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, copies of which may be obtained by visiting Upstart’s investor relations website at www.upstart.com or the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.
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